The diamond market just split in two.

We tracked the numbers over the past decade, and what emerged isn't subtle. Lab-grown and natural diamonds are diverging into separate asset classes with fundamentally different value trajectories.

The price gap tells the story. Lab-grown diamonds now cost 83% less than natural diamonds of comparable size and quality. That's not a discount. That's a collapse.

Two years ago, lab-grown prices dropped another 20-30% as production technology improved. When supply can scale infinitely, scarcity disappears. When scarcity disappears, so does the value proposition that made diamonds assets in the first place.

India's Invisible Dominance

Here's what most people miss about the diamond trade.

India processes 90% of the world's diamonds by volume. Surat alone operates over 3,500 diamond processing units. Every stone you see in a retail case likely passed through Indian hands.

This concentration creates leverage. India doesn't just cut diamonds. It shapes global supply chains, price discovery, and quality standards.

The country's position gives it unique visibility into market shifts. When processing volumes change, it's an early signal of demand fluctuations before they hit retail.

The Long View On Value

Natural diamonds have appreciated at roughly 3% annually over 35 years, according to Bain & Company research. That's consistent, measurable value growth across decades.

Lab-grown diamonds showed similar appreciation from 2007 until recently. But the past two years broke the pattern. Technological advances in CVD production flooded supply, and prices couldn't hold.

We're watching two assets with identical physical properties develop opposite value curves. One benefits from geological scarcity. The other suffers from industrial scalability.

Sustainability As The New Wedge

The natural diamond industry is making a calculated bet on environmental differentiation.

Major producers committed to carbon neutrality by 2030. They're protecting land at four times the area they mine. These aren't marginal gestures. They're repositioning natural diamonds as the sustainable choice against lab-grown alternatives that require significant energy inputs.

Whether consumers value this distinction enough to justify the price premium remains an open question. But the industry is betting its future on it.

The diamond market split into two paths. One leads toward commodity pricing. The other toward premium positioning through scarcity and sustainability.

We're watching which path holds value over the next decade.